wning a bar.    A subject touched on frequently, a subject touched on by virtually everyone who has written (or blogged) about the Night Entertainment Scene since Bernard Trink kicked things off in the 1960's as Bangkok's now near-legendary Night Owl.   We all have heard the litany of pitfalls; the usurious demands for tea money, the dishonest landlords, the corrupt Men In Too-Tight Uniforms coming for their regular payoffs, the cheating cashiers, thieving dancers, ad infinitum.   The concensus is that owning a bar is a high-risk gamble, with only a few winners and many losers.   But is this just so much Urban Legend, or is it based in fact?   No one has ever actually gone down the path and done a statistical analysis of just how precipitous the risk factor is in owning a bar.   Until now, that is.

         Midnight Hour has been surveying Bangkok's Expat Night Entertainment Areas for several years.    On any given survey, we will cover plus-or-minus 335 bars which currently reside within twelve predominantly Expat Night Entertainment Areas.   The actual number varies from month to month throughout the years, however this figure remains the mean average.   As such, this number provides a viable basis for a statistical analysis of the farang Nitescene.   So, let's just have a look at the real deal, statistically speaking.   We report, you decide - wait, we can't say that....   We report, you read it and weep.

         Below is an alphabetical listing of the Night Entertainment Venues that have -for whatever the reasons- thrown their cards on the table and got out of Dodge over the last year (2007).   The numbers (and percentages) will astound.   For those Expats residing in Bangkok, and the legion regular returnees, you will notice in the list below that a lot of old familiar faces have slipped from 'part of the fabric' to 'part of history'.

         The listing of 75 Night Entertainment Venues that have switched off the neon over the last year follows -

After Hours Alibi Cocktail Lounge Angel Bar Apache Bamboo Bar Bangkok Bar Beavers Belgian Dog Bar Black & White Black Market Bobby's Arms  (will reopen) C.K.'s Sports Bar Casablanka Chi Haru Classic Bar Beer Cleopatra Cowboy One Coyote Spicy Girls Cupid Bar DC. 10 #2 Double Entry Bar Farang Connection For You Fresh Boy Full House Massage Funny Bar Get Lucky Go Diva Bar Good Times Bar Guess Bar ? Hog's Breath Saloon Honey Pub Immortal Massage Irish Pub JBO Massage Junk Bar Kamome Club Kangaroo Bar Kanoknart PPII Suk 1 Suk 1 Cboy QPP PPII Suk 1 QPP Suk 1 Twi PPII Soi 33 Soi 33 Soi 33 Suk 1 PPII Cboy PPII QPP Suk 1 Suk 1 Nana QPP Twi Soi 33 Suk 1 Suk 1 Suk 1 W. Sq. Suk 1 Nana Suk 1 Soi 33 Cboy Suk 1 Suk 1 W. Sq. QPP PPII           Lee Lee Bar Let's Go Bar Lolitas Luna Club Lynx Mai 33 Massage Mai Thai Karaoke Massage Sho Miss Phu Ke Massage Morgan Bar M's Bar New Fresh Boy New Screw Boys Oasis Only She Bar Our Place (>Show Case) Pam's Cocktail Lounge Plearn Karaoke Queen's Castle III Red Parrot Relax Bar Rooster Bar Royal Salute Sexy Bar Silver Dragon Sport Bar SuperGirls Suzie Bar Taichu Sakaba The Big Mango Bar Trade Winds Pub Unnamed Beer Bar Wombat X-Man XXX Yes Pool Ball Zygosis QPP QPP PPII QPP Suk 1 Soi 33 Suk 1 Soi Kat. Soi 33 Suk 1 T Complx Twi Twi Suk 1 Suk 1 Cboy Cboy W. Sq. PPI PPI & II Suk 1 Suk 1 PPII Suk 1 Nana Suk 1 PPI Suk 1 W. Sq. Nana PPII PPI Suk 1 Twi PPII PPI Soi Kat.

         The mathematics at this juncture are straightforward; 75 bars folded last year out of a total average 'population' of 335 bars.   This means that over 22 % of the bars open in January 2007 were closed by January 2008.   That, friends, is just for one year - and your odds of surviving additional years will deteriorate accordingly (we'll spare you the maths).   The odds of a given bar failing over a one year period are therefore greater than 1 in 5.   If this needs interpretation, it means, "Not Good".

         To be entirely fair, survival is not just in the odds - there are other observations to be made.   For example, the greater number of failures occur with small bars and bars started on a shoestring (which is another way of saying - "No Business Plan").   Nevertheless, take a second look, there is still a fairly large number of 'old' established bars which bit the dust as well this year.

         We flash back to the 1960's when we first set foot in the Kingdom - we were told there were three absolute "Don'ts".   - Don't get married to a bar girl.   Don't try to start an import-export business (like today, everyone was looking for a way to stay in Thailand), and Don't open a bar.   We don't have any comment or statistics on the first two, but we do speak with some authority on what your chances are on successfully opening a bar.   Don't.

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         A couple of months back, I was in the ether talking with Bad Boy <link> on the demise of Sukhumvit 1 Plaza and the scuttlebutt going around that some Night Entertainment Venues were planning to move to Soi 13, Sukhumvit Road.   We both said, 'Huh? Where on Soi 13?' - or words to that effect.   Since that time, all has been revealed.

         The location being referred to by those relocating bar owners is The Trendy Plaza - the nondescript monolithic highrise structure nearing completion behind the Ambassador Hotel.   You won't be able to miss it - a behemoth structure of the Russian-Hotel school of architecture.   The Trendy is a residential/commercial structure, and the commercial side is (surprisingly) more than large enough to tennant an entire Night Entertainment Area on it's own, having much more leasable space than that of the old Sukhumvit 1 Plaza.   Of course there is no guarantee that enough bars will relocate / open at Trendy to provide the 'critical mass' for a viable Nitespot Area.   But there is, at this juncture more than enough room, and there has been at least a detectable amount of momentum in that direction.

A shot of The Sport Bar interior

         Presently, there are two bars now open at The Trendy, both 'relocatees' from Sukhumvit 1 Plaza, however there is a third bar abuilding (too soon to know the name).   The first bar to open there was the Oasis 2; the second bar was The Sport Bar.   The surprise here, is that both Nitespots (next door to one another), already are holding a fair crowd each evening.

            This modest foray into Soi 13 by these two long-established Nitespots is, however, enough to cause it to pop up on the Midnight Hour radar screen.   We will be keeping an eye on 'Trendy Plaza' to see what will develop (if anything), and will get back atcha in future issues.   

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